Carbon Footprint Prediction of Thermal Power Industry under the Dual-Carbon Target: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

China is the world’s primary energy consumer. In order to address global warming, has proposed a strategic goal of “reaching peak carbon and neutrality”, which related balance between human natural life vital significance for accelerating construction sustainable society achieving high-quality development. The sector main battlefield upon country will strive achieve “double carbon” goal, power systems take hierarchical first place in current emissions structure China. Thermal enterprises are facing severe challenges, such as low-carbon development, transformation, upgrading. Therefore, it crucial study thermal industry’s footprint. A scenario prediction method estimating footprint industry Zhejiang Province based on stacking integrated learning—i.e., STIRPAT model—is this study. Using model, identify influencing factors, one can coefficient determination (R2) mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) evaluation indicators, building fusion advantage model predict Four action scenarios set up determine 2021–2035, taking an example. findings indicate that accurately industry, with being higher than 0.98 lower 0.01. emission peaks under different calculated, verifying reach peak; however, development too extreme needs be revised combination more reasonable improvement methods. must restructured industrially, high-tech industries encouraged, consumption optimized, efficiency boosted, use reduced. Relevant research offers theoretical foundation benchmark China’s promote industrial restructuring transformation by means comprehensive governance.